[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 172045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172045 
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-172245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...EXTREME NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 172045Z - 172245Z

AN ISOLATED LONG-TRACK SUPERCELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS A SMALL PART OF
EXTREME NERN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THIS CELL. HOWEVER...IF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
CAN INITIATE EITHER AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORM...OR ALONG THE
OUTFLOW IN ITS WAKE...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION.

A STEADY-STATE AND LONG-TRACK CELL HAS BEEN MOVING EAST NEAR THE
KS/NEB BORDER ALMOST ALL DAY. EARLIER INDICATIONS WERE THAT THIS
STORM WOULD MOVE AWAY FROM MORE FAVORABLE STORM INFLOW AND
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS DEPICTING
CLEARING AHEAD OF THE STORM AND THIS HAS ALLOWED AIR MASS ACROSS
NERN KS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. STORM APPEARS TO BE CYCLING
THROUGH INTENSITY CHANGES BUT WAS MAINTAINING SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAP VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR
AS IT NEARS THE MO RIVER VALLEY. LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS ACTIVITY. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
WEAK...LFC BELOW 1KM AND VEERED LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALSO SUGGEST
A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..CARBIN.. 08/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

39759482 39539487 39379499 39459557 39689622 40059606
40049566 

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