[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 171804
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171803 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-171930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ND...SD...WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171803Z - 171930Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF SRN ND
AND NRN SD...AS WELL AS WRN MN...OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICTED GRADUALLY DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER WRN
SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS SRN ND AND INTO WRN MN.
AIR MASS FLOWING INTO AND ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE WAS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATING MLCAPE
AROUND 2000 J/KG AND VERY WEAK INHIBITION. EXPECT NEAR SFC-BASED
TSTMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS LIFT ACROSS THE REGION IS ENHANCED BY
UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM WY. ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE. EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUSTAIN
SUPERCELL STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

..CARBIN.. 08/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

45409935 45300139 44930267 45940202 47100135 47539933
47789575 47819456 47039392 46649384 45959358 45779568
45389683 

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