[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 171801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171800 
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-172000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2005
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NERN MS AND NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171800Z - 172000Z

THREAT WILL EXIST FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS NRN AL INTO MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON. AREA
WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IF ORGANIZED SVR THREAT APPEARS
MORE LIKELY THAN AT PRESENT.

LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MVC OVER THE MO/AR BORDER. MODEST SFC
PRESSURE FALLS/WAA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WAS AIDING IN NNEWD
MOVEMENT OF A SFC TROUGH/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR MKL IN WRN TN SEWD TO SW OF HUN IN NRN AL. AIRMASS SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY WAS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM
1500-2500 J/KG AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DESPITE SOMEWHAT
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ATTM...AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL FLOW /PER LITTLE ROCK VWP WITH 20 KTS WLY FLOW FROM 2-5
KM/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAY SUPPORT SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION WITH
THE ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED DMGG WINDS. GIVEN THE AMT OF
INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG WITH MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION EVIDENT ON
WV IMAGERY MOVING INTO WRN TN/NRN MS ATTM...A COLD POOL/ORGANIZED
TSTM CLUSTER MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP. IF THIS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE
APPARENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AREA.

..CROSBIE.. 08/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

36168823 36038869 35498924 34988938 34468943 33958932
33778909 33538861 33318733 33638597 33958567 34478574
35048608 35578636 35968683 

WWWW