[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 171712
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171712 
SCZ000-GAZ000-171915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2004
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN SC...ERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171712Z - 171915Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY 19Z OVER CENTRAL/ERN SC AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP INTO A SMALL
CLUSTER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASE IN DMGG WIND THREAT
POSSIBLE INTO ERN GA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR A
POSSIBLE OUTLOOK UPGRADE AND WW. 

VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS SC...WITH MLCAPES
FROM 2500-3000 J/KG. AT MID LEVELS...DRY AIR WAS EVIDENT PER WV
IMAGERY OVER SRN SC INTO ERN/SRN GA. INCIPIENT TSTMS DEVELOPING
ALONG A THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NW OF CAE TO MYR WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AS THEY MOVE SWD AROUND 10-15 KTS. DESPITE WEAK AMBIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR...THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMBIENT MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL FAVOR ISOLATED
WET MICROBURSTS. GIVEN A FOCUSING MECHANISM WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE MAY
DEVELOP BY THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO SRN SC AND
EVENTUALLY ERN GA. IF THIS BECOMES APPARENT BEFORE THEN...AREA MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK AND WW ISSUANCE WOULD BE
CONSIDERED.

..CROSBIE.. 08/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...

33867868 34237943 34378028 34378191 33738289 31938258
31438194 31358122 32028087 32867978 33167916 

WWWW