[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 130013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130013 
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-130145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1973
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY/FAR SW SD/NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 716...

VALID 130013Z - 130145Z

VALID PORTION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 716 CONTINUES ACROSS ERN WY UNTIL
05Z. ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP/SPREAD ESE INTO FAR SW SD AND
THE NEB PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARY LARGE HAIL THREAT CONTINUE AT THIS
TIME ACROSS ERN WY IN WW 716...WHERE AMBIENT AIRMASS REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN PRESENCE OF STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A
FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS...IN ADDITION TO POSSIBILITY FOR A ROGUE TORNADO OVER NEXT
HOUR OR TWO GIVEN MODEST LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE.

WITH EWD TRANSITION OF DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
NRN ROCKIES IMPULSE...COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF SELY LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE...STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO CONGEAL/EXPAND ESE INTO FAR
SW SD/NEB PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH ISOLD
SEVERE THREAT MAY BREACH EWD OUT OF WW 716 INTO FAR SW SD/NEB
PANHANDLE...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH APPEARS UNLIKELY OWING TO MODEST
INSTABILITY/LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

..GUYER.. 08/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...RIW...

43540665 44000549 43960400 43460284 42010221 41200230
41140385 42130599 42850662