[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 130202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130202 
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-130300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1974
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0902 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN WY INTO SWRN SD AND NWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 716...

VALID 130202Z - 130300Z

THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. SHOULD
CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...REMAINING PORTION OF WW 716
WILL BE CANCELLED BY 03Z.

ISOLATED SUPERCELLS OBSERVED EARLIER THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF
ERN WY HAVE WEAKENED AND MERGED INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM CONVERSE COUNTY WY ENEWD TO SHANNON COUNTY
IN SWRN SD. DESPITE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
/I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS/ ACROSS AREA...A COOLING
BOUNDARY-LAYER AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN AIR MASS STABILITY IS
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY. LINEAR
ORIENTATION OF STORMS SUGGESTS SOME COLD POOL ORGANIZATION.
THUS...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

SHOULD CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...REMAINING PORTION OF WW
716 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BY 03Z.

..MEAD.. 08/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...RIW...

43330629 43710231 42990197 42410341 42010412 42020614 

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