[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 122029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122029 
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-122230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1970
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NY THROUGH NRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 715...

VALID 122029Z - 122230Z

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND SHOULD CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...ESPECIALLY FROM S CNTRL INTO SERN NY AND NRN CNTRL THROUGH
NERN PA.

CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUE FROM S CNTRL NY INTO N CNTRL PA MOVING
EWD AT 25 TO 30 KT. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING WITHIN A ZONE OF
ASCENT IN VICINITY OF AND JUST N OF AN E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY WHERE
LIFT IS BEING ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH NY.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WITH 35 TO 40 KT
THROUGH 6 KM. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED...AND
SOME STORMS MAY ALSO EVOLVE INTO SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR HAIL. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH S CNTRL/SERN NY AND N CNTRL/NERN PA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
FARTHER W INTO THE WRN PARTS OF WW 715 MAY BE LIMITED BY LACK OF A
LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND APPARENT SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

..DIAL.. 08/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

42527599 41857392 41097432 40997642 41177854 

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