[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 122009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122008 
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-122215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1969
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE ID/SRN MT AND NRN/CNTRL WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 122008Z - 122215Z

THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLD LARGE HAIL /AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM NE
ID/SW MT INTO MUCH OF NRN/CNTRL WY AND EXTREME SE MT. MONITORING FOR
A POSSIBLE SEVERE WATCH ACROSS MUCH OF NRN/CNTRL WY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING EWD
ACROSS SRN ID AT THIS TIME. GIVEN EWD TRANSITION OF UPWARD FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND OROGRAPHIC/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.,.TSTM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF
STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED WNW-ESE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT /AROUND -15C AT 500 MB/ AND WRN EXTENT OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL AS
FAR WEST AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE ID/SW MT THIS AFTERNOON. 

FURTHER EAST...A MORE ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE
ACROSS NRN/CNTRL WY INTO EXTREME SE MT...SUCH THAT A WATCH MIGHT BE
NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODIFIED 12Z RIVERTON WY RAOB/RUC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 2000 J/KG MUCAPE ACROSS
NRN/CNTRL WY. STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...SUPPORTIVE OF
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..GUYER.. 08/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

45441465 46211399 46401220 45721017 45340498 44040469
42600502 42921000 44011160 44231399 

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