[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121807 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-122000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1968
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL IL...NRN IND THROUGH SRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121807Z - 122000Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
NEXT FEW HOURS FROM NRN IL...NRN IND INTO SRN LOWER MI. ISOLATED
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH NRN IL. THE WARM
SECTOR ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT IS DESTABILIZING WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S SUPPORTING MLCAPE
FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
RESULTING IN POOR 3-6 KM LAPSE RATES AND THIS MAY SERVE AS AN
OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY FOR HAIL. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AND IN THE
WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS PROCESS WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A
VERY WEAK CAP AND DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT. THIS AREA REMAINS ON
THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WHERE UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP
LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR
STORMS TO ORGANIZE WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT.

..DIAL.. 08/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...DVN...

41199005 41988728 43088403 41908348 40968627 40368971 

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