[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121536
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121536 
NYZ000-PAZ000-121730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1967
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND SWRN NY THROUGH NRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121536Z - 121730Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER SRN
NY INTO NRN PA NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. CONVECTIVE AND MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATE THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WNWWD
INTO NRN PA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW
LEVEL JET IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES MIGRATES EAST INTO NY. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO RICHER
MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE OH VALLEY ADVECTING NEWD WITH MLCAPE
1500-2000 J/KG POSSIBLE INTO SRN NY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. CLUSTER OF
STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER LAKE ERIE WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ALONG
THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND INTENSIFY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES DOWNSTREAM. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ON SRN FRINGE OF THE
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WHERE KINEMATIC PROFILES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AS STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.

..DIAL.. 08/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

42677878 42757672 42317500 41177555 40907726 41347936
42258041 

WWWW