[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120342 
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-120515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1966
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1042 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IA/NRN IL/SRN WI INTO NWRN IND AND PERHAPS
SWRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 120342Z - 120515Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH
STRONGEST STORMS.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO ALONG AND AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF ERN IA. AN ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WAS ALSO NOTED N OF ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT OVER PARTS OF SRN WI AND AS FAR E AS SRN LAKE MI. 

ACTIVITY OCCURRING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER ERN IA IS LIKELY
SURFACE-BASED WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES
AROUND 500 J/KG. DESPITE SOME WEAKNESS IN MID-LEVEL WINDS /PER LOCAL
VWPS/...ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR /ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW-LEVELS/ REMAINS
RATHER STRONG. IT APPEARS THAT UPDRAFT STRENGTH/ORGANIZATION MAY
TEND TO BE LIMITED BY THE INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND POOR
LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NRN IL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

N OF WARM FRONT...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA IS CONTRIBUTING TO AN
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE ACROSS SRN WI AND ACROSS SRN LAKE MI. 
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
MAINLY LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER THE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

..MEAD.. 08/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

40939134 41599138 42389108 43189041 43468929 43118705
42518605 41618606 40978657 40488759 40378962 40689086 

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