[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120042 
ILZ000-IAZ000-WIZ000-120215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 714...

VALID 120042Z - 120215Z

THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS ERN HALF OF WW 714 THROUGH 03Z.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW SW OF ALO WITH AN
ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THIS FEATURE INTO
CNTRL IL. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE OVER SWRN MN TO THE CNTRL IA LOW AND THEN SWWD INTO NWRN
MO. LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN IA
COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA HAVE LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
TSTM COVERAGE OVER THE PAST HOUR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND COLD FRONT...AS
WELL AS WITHIN SYSTEM WARM SECTOR NEAR OTM.

00Z DVN SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT AIR MASS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW REMAINS
SLIGHTLY CAPPED FOR MEAN-MIXED PARCELS WITH A MLCAPE OF AROUND 900
J/KG. ONGOING STORMS INDICATE THAT PARCELS ARE INDEED REACHING THEIR
LFC/S...HOWEVER GIVEN THE POOR LAPSE RATES AND OVERALL WEAK
BUOYANCY...STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO ORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SWLY LLJ WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF SW IA DISTURBANCE...LIKELY LEADING TO A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE. MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF
ONGOING ACTIVITY CAN GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS.

..MEAD.. 08/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...DVN...ARX...DMX...OAX...

42339512 42549046 40919038 40659498 

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