[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112224 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-112330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1964
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IL / CENTRAL IN / WRN OH / FAR NRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 112224Z - 112330Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL
DOWNBURSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY
ALSO OCCUR.

ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. FLOW AROUND 850 MB HAS BACKED LAST FEW HOURS AND WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS OUT OF THE SW BY 00Z. GIVEN PERSISTENT
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY AND NEGLIGIBLE
CAPPING...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.

NRN INDIANA PROFILER SHOWS FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR WITH HEIGHT FOR
SUPERCELLS...AS DO CHICAGO AREA VWPS.  THUS...LARGE HAIL UP TO 1.75"
DIAMETER MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS DESPITE RELATIVELY POOR
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
LOW LCL HEIGHTS ALSO SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN NEAR THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN
IL AND IN.

..JEWELL.. 08/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

39388874 39989069 41179033 41308942 41208848 41068714
40918617 40098286 39188279 38378355 38828589 39118740 

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