[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112012 
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-112215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NEB THROUGH SWRN AND S CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 112012Z - 112215Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN
THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS
CAN ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN IA INTO SERN
NEB. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SRN IA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT MAX
MOVING EWD THROUGH EXTREME SERN NEB. THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE MODEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. THE WEAK CAP AND
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING ASCENT MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORMS
FROM SERN NEB THROUGH SRN IA NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS AREA IS ALONG THE
SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WHERE KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE AT
LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE AN OVERALL LIMITING
FACTOR...ESPECIALLY FOR HAIL. HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND...EXPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE
INTO LINE SEGMENTS.

..DIAL.. 08/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

40529308 40749443 40549617 41289640 41849459 41539256 

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