[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111841 
OHZ000-INZ000-112045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1962
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL IND THROUGH W CNTRL OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111841Z - 112045Z

STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER CNTRL IND AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY MOVE EWD THROUGH E CNTRL
IND AND W CNTRL OH. PRIMARY THREATS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.


EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER CNTRL IND
FROM NEAR GREENTOWN SWWD TO NEAR LEBANON AND IS MOVING ESEWD AT 20
TO 25 KT. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN
THE VICINITY OF AN E-W ORIENTED QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE WARM
SECTOR S OF THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE AROUND
2000 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AND MAY SERVE AS AN
OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR TO HAIL SIZE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES FROM 8 TO 8.5 C/KM AND LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS MAY
ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. THE STORMS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WHERE
KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE.

..DIAL.. 08/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...

39598394 39668506 39748649 40418582 40658474 40408343 

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