[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071842
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071842 
WIZ000-MNZ000-072045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1937
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071842Z - 072045Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS FROM N-CENTRAL MN EWD INTO FAR NWRN WI. LARGE HAIL IS
LIKELY THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS
ALSO POSSIBLE. REGION IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

AT 1830Z...STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS NEWD FROM JUST SOUTH OF
ABR TO 25S BRD TO THE NWRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE IT MERGES
WITH THE LAKE BREEZE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINED WITH
EVAPOTRANSITIVE EFFECTS HAVE GRADUALLY MOISTENED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR
FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL MN
PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY. RUC BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS
INDICATE THAT MLCIN REMAINS AROUND -100 J/KG NEAR THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...WEAK ELEVATED STORMS EXIST ACROSS CROW WING AND
CASS COUNTIES IN MN ASSOCIATED WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
THROUGH THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE SW. CONTINUATION OF WAA AND
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ELEVATED
STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND BRD INCREASE TO 3500 J/KG BY 20Z ASSOCIATED
WITH BOTH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-30KT WILL SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS ARE EVENTUALLY ABLE TO BECOME
SURFACE-BASED WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING/LESSENING OF CIN THIS
AFTERNOON.

..BANACOS.. 08/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

45399283 45929445 46369510 46679566 46959569 47189560
47339511 47289435 47149361 46869293 46629238 46159199
45749169 45449200 

WWWW