[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 072231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072230 
WIZ000-MNZ000-080030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1938
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MN AND WRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 072230Z - 080030Z

THE AREA FROM CENTRAL MN EWD INTO WRN WI IS BEING MONITORED FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONAL
THREAT EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. 

AT 2215Z...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NEWD FROM JUST SOUTH OF ABR TO 25S
BJI TO 10S HIB. AIR MASS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH PEAK
IN DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. COMBINATION OF
NWD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F...ABSOLUTE CIN IS CURRENTLY VERY LOW WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG. PRIMARY QUESTION FOR INITIATION IS
LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. WV IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A WEAK
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
CURRENTLY....WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ACROSS FAR ERN MT SWD
INTO NERN WY. STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE IS FOCUSING SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WRN DAKOTAS WITH MINIMAL SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL MN. TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEXT 1-2 HOURS IS
POSSIBLE WITH WEAKER LEADING WAVE...AND SHORT-RANGE TRENDS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR
SEVERE STORMS. WNWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
TO 30-40 KT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LONG-LIVED CELLS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

..BANACOS.. 08/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

44459437 45049531 46319586 46959569 47179506 47089346
46939271 46529240 45819217 44779208 44429281 

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