[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071750 
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-071845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1936
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...LWR OH VALLEY

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 071750Z - 071845Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHLY LOCALIZED OR MINOR IN
VERY WEAK FLOW/SHEAR REGIME.  WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS WEAK...ASSOCIATED WITH
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG/SOUTH OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS.  STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS
REGION...WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS UNIMPEDED...NORTH OF CLOUDINESS IN
DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH GULF COAST UPPER LOW. MIXED LAYER
CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND RISK FOR
LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS MAY INCREASE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH
OR EXCEED 90F WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..KERR.. 08/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

37219033 38508902 39628803 39798666 39538586 39728510
39458423 39238336 39648196 39618082 38648135 38308240
37808404 37238490 36898628 36348830 35978934 36029052
36639058 

WWWW