[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051702 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-051900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1933
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES THROUGH SRN NEW
ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051702Z - 051900Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 20-21Z.  NEED FOR A WW IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WITH SEVERE THREAT MOSTLY HIGHLY
LOCALIZED OR MINOR...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN URBAN CORRIDOR.  TEMPERATURES ARE RISING
THROUGH THE 90S...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAINING NEAR 70F...
CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. UPSTREAM...
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS STEADILY ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH
VERMONT/SOUTHEAST NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA.  FRONT
SEEMS LIKELY TO MERGE INTO PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BY THE 20-21Z TIME
FRAME...MUCH AS PROGGED BY MODELS...ACROSS OR NEAR THE
PHILADELPHIA/NEW YORK CITY AND BOSTON AREAS.  COUPLED WITH
WEAKENING/EASTWARD SHIFT OF HIGH-LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COAST...THIS  IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASING/INTENSIFYING BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. THOUGH WESTERLY MEAN
FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 30 KT...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS...PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS.

..KERR.. 08/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

40817571 41237506 41997329 42657235 43737155 44287044
43857007 41877073 40687281 39827467 39747558 40257658 

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