[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 040303
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040302 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-040430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1931
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1002 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NEB...NW IA...SW MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 700...701...

VALID 040302Z - 040430Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH A LINE OF STORMS LOCATED
FROM SW MN EXTENDING SWWD INTO CNTRL NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREAS EAST OF WW 701...THOUGH THE STORMS
MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ACROSS NE IA AND SE MN.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN PLACE FROM SRN MN EXTENDING SWWD
INTO SRN NEB. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
A NRN US UPPER-TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SW MN AND
ERN NEB. MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SWRN NEB
OVERNIGHT. MLCAPE VALUES NEAR THE STORMS RANGE FROM NEAR 4000 J/KG
IN NW IA TO 1500 J/KG ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN CNTRL NEB. IN
ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTING A SEVERE MULTICELL THREAT WILL
EXIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES.. 08/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

40939910 40810108 41560099 42060035 42989753 44179594
44489511 44319386 43609398 42269562 

WWWW