[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 032342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032342 
NEZ000-COZ000-040115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1930
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND WRN NEB...FAR NE CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 032342Z - 040115Z

STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NE CO...WRN NEB
AND CNTRL NEB. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A SEVERE THREAT AND IT IS
POSSIBLE A WW WILL BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN PLACE FROM CNTRL NEB
EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN CO. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS HELPING STORMS
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED IN NE CO AND
ACROSS MOST OF NEB WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S F AND MLCAPE
VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. VAD WIND
PROFILERS IN WRN NEB SHOW ABOUT 35 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING
THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. IN
ADDITION...VERY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 9.0
C/KM COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE SFC
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS FAVOR A HAIL/WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

..BROYLES.. 08/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

40330036 40020276 40900355 41610285 42419888 41259798 

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