[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 032245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032245 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-040015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1929
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0545 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN SD...FAR SW MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 699...

VALID 032245Z - 040015Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS WW 699 OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EWD INTO SW MN AND AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH
LATER THIS EVENING.

SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING IN SERN SD BEHIND A COLD FRONT
LOCATED FROM CNTRL MN SWWD TO NEAR SIOUX FALLS AND INTO CNTRL NEB.
THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND ARE MOVING INTO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WHERE MLCAPE VALUES EXCEED 4000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...VWPS AND
REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 40 KT
SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS. THE STRONG INSTABILITY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
FAVOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 08/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

45019694 44829624 44109605 43599640 43169860 42990065
43530110 44220079 44659900 

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