[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 032016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032016 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-032145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1928
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN WI...ERN IA AND NWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 032016Z - 032145Z

ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A THERMAL RIDGE FROM NEB ACROSS CNTRL/ERN
IA INTO CNTRL WI AT MID-AFTN.  MLCAPES WITHIN THIS AXIS WERE AROUND
3500 J/KG OWING TO LOW-MID 70S DEW POINTS BENEATH VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT.  AN ISOLD TSTM HAD FORMED RECENTLY OVER NERN IA ALONG A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO EXTEND NEWD
INTO SWRN WI AND RECENT VSBL IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS EAST
OF KLSE VCNTY THIS BOUNDARY.

TSTMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP NEWD FROM NERN IA INTO SWRN WI THROUGH
LATE AFTN.  BLUE RIVER PROFILER SHOWS MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
THROUGH ABOUT 2 KM /OWING TO SWLY LLJ/...THEN A WEAKENING PROFILE
ABOVE. THIS IS LIMITING THE OVERALL VERTICAL SHEAR TO 30 OR 35 KTS.
 THUS...MAINLY MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD RESULT. BUT...GIVEN
HOT AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS HAIL AS THEY MOVE SEWD INTO SCNTRL WI/NWRN IL
LATER THIS EVE.  A WW MAY BE NEEDED IF STORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP/INTENSIFY.

..RACY.. 08/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

42139294 42889233 43989119 44489036 44278960 43608937
42128908 41378952 41149091 40939231 41439350 

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