[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031944 
COZ000-032245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1927
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FRONT RANGE AND CNTRL/NRN MOUNTAINS OF CO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 031944Z - 032245Z

LOCALLY PERSISTENT MDT-HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT FROM TSTMS THROUGH
THE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE URBAN FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT
MOUNTAINS OF CO.  TSTMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/HAIL...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PLATTEVILLE CO PROFILER AND BOULDER VWP SHOW THAT NELY FLOW IS UP TO
ABOUT 1.5 KM BEHIND FIRST WIND SHIFT SETTLING SWD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS.  COLUMN IS BEGINNING TO SATURATE WITH AROUND 1.25 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ADVECTING SWWD FROM SWRN NEB.  TSTMS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AIDED BY TAIL END OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/ ROCKIES.  EXPECT
THAT THE STORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE THROUGH THE AFTN.  

VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS THE NELY FLOW
INCREASES THIS EVENING...SUFFICIENT FOR MAINLY MULTICELL STORM
CLUSTERS.  THE STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ONTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING.  PERSISTENT NELY FLOW
WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A PROLONGED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OFF THE
TERRAIN.  AS A RESULT...SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE REPEATED HEAVY
RAINFALL AS STORMS TRAIN/BACKBUILD.  STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL OR A DAMAGING WIND GUST.

..RACY.. 08/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...

38520517 38840576 39570602 40930574 40890519 40790473
40450455 39740447 38610440 

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