[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 022238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022237 
SDZ000-030000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1919
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND N CENTRAL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 022237Z - 030000Z

HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN/NRN SD
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
EVENING...THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR ATTM THAT A WW WILL BECOME
NECESSARY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG A SERIES OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND
INVOF A THERMAL LOW IN WRN SD. 21Z RUC SOUNDINGS...MODIFIED FOR
LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...REVEAL MLCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG WITH
SURFACE MIXED LAYER DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 3 KM.  SOME INCREASE IN
CONVECTION MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING AS A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTS
SLOWLY ENEWD FROM WY.  THE DEEP MIXED LAYERS AND MODEST INSTABILITY
SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED
STRONG/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
THREAT WITH STORMS FARTHER E IN PROXIMITY TO THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL SD.

..THOMPSON.. 08/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

45249967 44379989 43930155 43510282 43820339 44180325
44900242 45940134 45900021 

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