[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 022219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022218 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-030015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1918
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0518 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NW MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 022218Z - 030015Z

...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BUT SEVERE THREAT MAY
BE LIMITED UNTIL STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOW A FEW DISCRETE
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR DETROIT LAKES MN...AND THIS AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. SATELLITE IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST THAT
STORMS MAY BE ELEVATED GIVEN ACCAS TYPE APPEARANCE. 12Z SOUNDINGS
FROM BIS/ABR SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER ALOFT...WHILE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAMKF CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME INHIBITION GIVEN
CURRENT SFC TEMPS. THIS SUGGESTS THE CONVECTION MAY BE BASED AROUND
700MB. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA...NOW APPROACHING THE ARROWHEAD...SO LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS REGION APPEARS TO BE
EXPERIENCING NVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGE.
HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF ND MAY BE INDICATIVE
OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM IMPULSE. 

IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO OVERCOME INHIBITION AND BECOME SFC
BASED...INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.

..TAYLOR/COHEN.. 08/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

45889674 47269865 48949862 48979675 48259504 47099444
46469480 

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