[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 021829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021829 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-022000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1917
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO NRN NY STATE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 696...

VALID 021829Z - 022000Z

SATL INDICATES THAT THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS QUICKLY MOVED
INTO ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK AND WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY 21Z. 
STRONG TSTMS ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH WITH STRONG WNWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE COLUMN.  VERTICAL SHEAR HAS APPARENTLY BEEN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS PER CARIBOU RADAR.

FIRST ROUND OF TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THE NRN PARTS OF ME BY
21Z.  18Z MESOANALYSIS...HOWEVER...CONTINUES TO SHOW A RESERVOIR OF
MID 60S DEW POINTS ADVECTING NEWD UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY/SRN QUE
AND INSTABILITY IS GROWING AGAIN OWING TO HEATING BENEATH COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.  CU STREETS OBSERVED IN VSBL SATL WILL PROBABLY
DEVELOP INTO CBS AND DROP SEWD TOWARD NRN PARTS OF NY/VT/NH LATER
THIS AFTN...VERY SIMILAR TO 12Z NAM SOLUTION.  HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
FOR SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS WRN ME INTO NRN NY STATE.  FARTHER
N...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE MAY PROVE DETRIMENTAL IN
SUSTAINING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS NRN/CNTRL ME THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTN/EVE.  

MAIN SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.  HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS/SUPERCELLS.

..RACY.. 08/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...

43307087 43467217 43817428 44987431 44987087 46916749
44906736 

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