[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 021414
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021413 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-021645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1916
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0913 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ME...NH...VT...NRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021413Z - 021645Z

MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SEWD ACROSS SRN QUE WITH A 50 KT H5 JET AT MOOSONEE.  STRONG UPPER
MOTION IN EXIT REGION OF THIS JET IS ALREADY SUPPORTING AN
INTENSIFYING BAND OF TSTMS OVER SERN QUE.  VSBL SATL SUGGESTS THAT
THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND WILL DESTABILIZE
RAPIDLY OWING TO INSOLATION AND 60-65F DEW POINTS.  MAGNITUDE OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND THE UNCAPPED/INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFYING STORMS AS THEY
HEAD TOWARD ME...NRN VT AND NRN NH THROUGH EARLY AFTN.

GIVEN FAST WNWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME...TSTMS WILL TEND TO
ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH LEWPS/BOWS.  THUS...WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL WILL BE THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK.

THE 1630Z OUTLOOK WILL INCLUDE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK FOR
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...LIKELY PARTS OF ME INTO NRN VT/NH.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCHES MAY FOLLOW FOR PARTS OF THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTN.

..RACY.. 08/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BUF...

45807496 46537230 47476891 47186762 45506721 44806794
43847029 43207281 44057618 

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