[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 012337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012336 
MTZ000-IDZ000-020100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1914
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL ID...FAR WRN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 012336Z - 020100Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NCNTRL
ID AND FAR WRN MT. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING NEWD ACROSS ID WHERE
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
STORMS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVING EWD
ACROSS NWRN ID. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S F
AND TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE 90S WHICH IS CREATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY 
(LI OF -4 TO -6 C) FOR SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35 KT WHICH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE POSSIBLE. THE LARGE-TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL ENHANCE THE
WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 08/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...

45271472 45421594 45821614 46611580 46951430 46451296
45531326 

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