[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 012232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012232 
SDZ000-NDZ000-020030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1913
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0532 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL ND AND FAR N-CENTRAL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 012232Z - 020030Z

ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SWRN ND AND FAR NRN SD WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL DURING THE
NEXT 2-3 HOURS. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE SPATIALLY CONFINED
AND WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. 

AT 2220Z...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL ND...AND ARE LIKELY BEING FED BY MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SW IN THE 1-3KM LAYER. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS FROM SE-NW ALONG WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL SD
INTO WRN ND AND FAR NERN MT. MODERATELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION
PROFILE CAN BE INFERRED FROM BIS VAD WIND PROFILE. WITH MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 35-40
KT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY DECREASES RAPIDLY EWD
PER LATEST RUC BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS.  AS CONVECTION
TRACKS GENERALLY ENEWD AT 15-20 KT...STORMS WILL GRADUALLY ENCOUNTER
LESS INSTABILITY...SO GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO
BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

..BANACOS.. 08/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

45610226 46210291 47150344 47490337 47720259 47680189
47360127 46920076 46470038 45980024 45490016 45140018
44980058 45040123 45220178 

WWWW