[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 012228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012228 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-020000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1912
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0528 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NY...VT...NH...ME

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 695...

VALID 012228Z - 020000Z

A THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW
695. A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EWD ACROSS
NH AND WRN ME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC TROUGH FROM NRN VT EXTENDING
SSWWD INTO ERN NY AND ERN PA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH LOCATED OVER QUEBEC AND THE NERN UNITED STATES. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES
IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...VAD WIND PROFILES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 25 KT. THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
500 MB TEMPS AROUND -10 C WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT. THE WIND
DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED ACROSS SRN NY WHERE LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.5 C/KM. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
ISOLATED THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DECREASES ACROSS THE
REGION.

..BROYLES.. 08/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

45016910 43977014 43047216 42577457 42637590 43567611
43997526 44467298 45287105 45827018 45726975