[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 012101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012101 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-012300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1911
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN WY...THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE...NERN CO...AND
FAR NWRN KS/SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 012101Z - 012300Z

LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED
NATURE OF THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE.

AT 2050Z...SURFACE THERMAL LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER SWRN NEB WITH A
CONVERGENCE LINE EXTENDING WSWWD INTO THE FRONT RANGE 30N COS.
BOUNDARY LAYER IS WELL MIXED AND VERY DEEP ALONG THIS AXIS WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 100F AND EXTREME SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF
50-60F. ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD DRIFT
GENERALLY EWD AT 5-10KT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONVECTION IS STRONGLY OUTFLOW
DOMINANT...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 20-25KT AND STRONG
SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION POTENTIAL. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT
MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DRY MICROBURST ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF SHORT-LIVED
BUT LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

..BANACOS.. 08/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

39550516 40150540 42200582 42940569 43080483 42890385
42440341 40610278 40380190 40370105 40110063 39620084
39230169 39030269 39000431 39130471 

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