[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011702 
NYZ000-PAZ000-011830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1910
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011702Z - 011830Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
 HOWEVER...WEAKER WAVES ARE EVIDENT IN BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO ONTARIO...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH MAY NOT BE DIGGING ACROSS AREAS NORTH/NORTHEAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTING ONGOING INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF GEORGIAN BAY/LAKE HURON.  

SURFACE HEATING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS MOIST WITH UPPER 60S DEW POINTS...HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MIXED
LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS
LIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFYING
STORMS.  30 TO 40 KT NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID EVENTUAL
PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN/
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 20-21Z.  MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS...BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE CELL MOTIONS/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAY
BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS UTICA/ SYRACUSE/ROCHESTER AND AREAS
TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.

..KERR.. 08/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

44337592 43897511 43517487 42877494 42207589 41987733
42187856 42487911 

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