[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010243 
MIZ000-WIZ000-010415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1909
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0943 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI...U.P. OF MI...NRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 010243Z - 010415Z

...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI. WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED WITHIN DEEPER RH PLUME
EXTENDING FROM NEAR DLH...EWD ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI.  THIS ACTIVITY
APPEARS DRIVEN MOSTLY BY WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND POSSIBLY BY
DECOUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  MEAN
FLOW AND PROPAGATION COMPONENTS FAVOR A CONTINUED SEWD MOVEMENT INTO
PORTIONS OF NERN WI...AND PARTICULARLY NRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.  SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR MOSTLY MULTI-CELL
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOME ROTATION WHICH COULD
ENHANCE HAIL THREAT WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..DARROW.. 08/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH...

47369011 46378448 45198319 44848479 45618805 45789122
46329222 

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