[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 252313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252313 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-260015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0686
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0613 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL/NERN TX...SERN OK...AND SWRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 202...

VALID 252313Z - 260015Z

TORNADO WATCH 202 CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL TX. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS FOR AREAS OF NERN TX...SERN OK...AND SWRN AR AS ONGOING
ACTIVITY TRACKS GENERALLY EWD. THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE
HAIL CONTINUE WITH ONGOING SUPERCELLS.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA REVEALS A 998MB SFC
LOW IN S-CENTRAL OK...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD TO JUST WEST OF
THE DFW METRO AREA BEFORE ARCING SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. AN AXIS OF STRONG PRESSURE FALLS REMAINS EAST OF THE DRYLINE
IN N-CENTRAL TX /FALLS OF 3-4MB IN 2HRS/. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
AXIS REMAINS RELATIVELY NARROW...EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE TX
COASTAL PLAIN NNWWD TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE DFW METRO AREA.
INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DECREASES TO THE EAST ACROSS NERN TX.

SEVERAL SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WW 202 AREA...FROM FANNIN
COUNTY ALONG THE RED RIVER TO HILL COUNTY SOUTH OF DALLAS. STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...AWAY FROM THE QUASI-STATIONARY DRYLINE
AT 25-30KT. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE REGION...THE GRADUAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY
AND GREATER CIN TO THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN A REDUCED NUMBER OF
SUPERCELLS...AND DECREASING TORNADO THREAT AS STORMS TRACK INTO NERN
TX LATE THIS EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED...AND AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
TO COVER PERSISTING SEVERE WEATHER INTO NERN TX/SERN OK/SWRN AR
WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..BANACOS.. 04/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

32389724 33829636 34509545 34469427 34189346 33009406
31899446 31379518 30529681 30559880 

WWWW