[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 260146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260146 
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-260215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0687
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0846 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/NERN TX...SWRN AR/FAR NWRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 202...

VALID 260146Z - 260215Z

WW 202 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z GIVEN ISOLATED THREAT ATTM.
ANOTHER WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING IF A GREATER COVERAGE OF
SVR IS ANTICIPATED.

LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN ACROSS
NRN TX AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WEST TX. CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER NCENTRAL TX AND MOVED TO THE SOUTH OF DFW
METRO AREA HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS AS THEY
MOVED WELL EAST OF INSTABILITY AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STORM OVER GRAYSON COUNTY NORTH OF DFW
APPEARS TO BE ON LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW OVER NW TX. AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EWD...EXPECT A GRADUAL SHIFT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS INTO NERN
TX/SWRN AR AND FAR NWRN LA OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. GIVEN PRESENCE OF
MODERATE CLOUD BEARING SHEAR...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY
PERSIST INTO THIS AREA WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..CROSBIE.. 04/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...

34069319 33789611 33509681 33029670 32219529 32669314 

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