[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 252244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252244 COR
OKZ000-TXZ000-260015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0685
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0544 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201...

VALID 252244Z - 260015Z

CORRECTED FOR WATCH NUMBER IN FIRST SENTENCE...

LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION NEAR
JEFFERSON COUNTY OK...IN SRN PORTION OF WW 201. A SMALL CLUSTER OF
STORMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THIS REGION OF ENHANCED FORCING
AND EXPECT STRENGTHENING STORMS TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS JEFFERSON...
STEPHENS... AND CARTER COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE OVER N TX...IN TORNADO
WATCH  202.

ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO APEX OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS
WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER 
SHEAR OF 40-50KT WILL ENSURE SUPERCELL EVOLUTION. SITUATION APPEARS
VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE...POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE...HAIL FROM THESE
STORMS.

..CARBIN.. 04/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

34139593 34079859 36919757 36919489 

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