[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222340 
TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-230115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0662
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/ERN TN...NRN AL AND NRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 191...194...

VALID 222340Z - 230115Z

MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ADVECTING EWD QUICKLY
THROUGH MIDDLE TN AND NWRN AL. TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE
DRYLINE HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MIX OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND LINE
SEGMENTS.  NASHVILLE VWP SHOWS A WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE AND THE
2-8KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE NEARLY 90 DEGREES TO THE INITIATING
BOUNDARY...THUS THE TENDENCY FOR CELLS TO REMAIN DISCRETE.  CELL
SPLITS AND MERGERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE RISK FOR TSTM CLUSTERS
TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP...THEN BECOME N-S LINE SEGMENTS. THESE LINE
SEGMENTS MAY BOW AND PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AS THEY MOVE
INTO NRN GA AND ERN TN.  

AIR MASS APPEARS TO BE MORE STABLE FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE HIGHEST
SRN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.  THUS...STORMS MAY TEND TO WEAKEN AS THEY
APPROACH THE NC BORDER BY 03Z. 

SEVERE TSTM WATCH 191 ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL MAY BE CANCELLED
EARLY AS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHIFTS EWD THIS EVENING.

..RACY.. 04/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...

34688693 36418650 36508395 34638439 34598677 

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