[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230005 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-230130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0663
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0705 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IND...SWRN/SCNTRL OH AND CNTRL/ERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188...192...

VALID 230005Z - 230130Z

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO SWRN
OH AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE SEWD INTO SRN
IND.  DRYLINE WAS ARCING FROM THE CVG VCNTY SWD INTO MIDDLE TN AND A
WARM FRONT BOWING NEWD THROUGH THE MID-OH VLY BEFORE CURVING SWD
ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

TSTMS THAT EVOLVED OVER CNTRL/SRN IND HAVE MAINTAINED A BLEND OF
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. SMALLER CELLS HAVE ALSO BEEN
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OVER SWRN/SCNTRL OH...ALONG NERN
PERIPHERY OF THE THETA-E AXIS. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...THOUGH AS STORM NUMBER INCREASES...EVOLUTION INTO MORE
LINEAR MODES MAY OCCUR.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.  BUT...ISOLD BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OH RVR VLY INTO SCNTRL OH WHERE
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED...ALBEIT WEAK.

STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY 02-03Z AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE
SCIOTO RVR VLY AND INTO THE KY COALFIELDS WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT EXISTS.

..RACY.. 04/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

36888553 38368502 40058603 39958276 38878296 38288347
37688280 36988327 36898421 

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