[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222301 
ORZ000-WAZ000-230030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0661
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/NWRN ORE AND SWRN WA

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 222301Z - 230030Z

A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS NCNTRL/NWRN
ORE AND SWRN WA THROUGH EVENING.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW ALONG THE ORE/WA PACIFIC
COAST. SUB MINUS 20C H5 TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANY THE LOW AND GIVEN
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...AIR MASS HAS BEEN FAVORABLE FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.  MOREOVER...BAND OF 25-30 KT MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER SYSTEM HAS BOOSTED 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES INTO THE 40-45 KT RANGE.  MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR WILL ENCOURAGE
STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT COMPARATIVELY WEAK THERMAL BUOYANCY MAY
LIMIT THE OVERALL LIFE CYCLES OF THE UPDRAFTS. NONETHELESS...THE
COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY AUGMENT THE PRODUCTION OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST OF STORMS.

TSTMS SHOULD SPREAD NWWD TOWARD SWRN WA THIS EVENING...INCLUDING THE
PORTLAND AREA.

..RACY.. 04/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PDT...PQR...

43832296 45962279 46292124 45442028 44132138 43632247 

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