[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221556
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221556 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-221730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0650
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL...SWRN IND...WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221556Z - 221730Z

...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN IL INTO WRN
IND BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WW IS ANTICIPATED SHORTLY...

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF UPPER LOW
ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF IL...INTO WRN PORTIONS OF KY. 
PARTIAL CLEARING IS NOW OBSERVED INTO SWRN IND WHERE DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD INCREASE SHORTLY.  LATEST THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
AND DEEPEN AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z WITH SWD DEVELOPMENT INTO PORTIONS OF KY. 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR INTENSIFICATION IS THE STRONG EXIT REGION OF
UPPER JET AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  WW WILL BE REQUIRED
FOR THIS REGION AS SCENARIO UNFOLDS.

..DARROW.. 04/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

37368815 38788881 39878953 40168780 39008637 37348681 

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