[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221606
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221606 
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-221800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0651
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...WRN/CENTRAL LA...AND WRN/CENTRAL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221606Z - 221800Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN TX...WRN/CENTRAL LA...AND WRN/CENTRAL MS. WW
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON. 

AT 1550Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
RED RIVER PARISH LA WSWWD TO ANDERSON COUNTY TX. FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL
LEAD TO MLCAPE VALUES 1500-2500 J/KG. AXIS OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AS CIN CONTINUES TO DECREASE. DEEP LAYER FLOW IS PRIMARILY
PARALLEL TO FRONT...SUGGESTING A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED
SEVERE/LONG-LIVED CORES CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD ALSO BE AIDED BY STRONG 500-300MB
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN SWRN U.S. RIDGE AND CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS MO. AS COVERAGE OF STORMS INCREASES...WW
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 17Z.

..BANACOS.. 04/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

32069433 32259340 32349187 32649008 31278973 30929193
30839302 30459408 30099539 30069634 30349690 30799700
31229685 31529620 

WWWW