[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211715 
MOZ000-211915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0625
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211715Z - 211915Z

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. 
WW MAY BE REQUIRED...

BUOYANCY IS INCREASING ALONG AND JUST SW OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
FROM NEAR STL...NWWD ACROSS CNTRL MO TO NORTH OF MCI.  SBCAPE VALUES
ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHERE THERE
APPEARS TO BE A GRADUAL THICKENING OF CU FIELD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
WIND SHIFT.  ALTHOUGH FORCING IS NOT THAT STRONG...WEAK WARM
ADVECTION AND CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY IF IT CAN DEVELOP AS EXPECTED.  WW
MAY BE REQUIRED.

..DARROW.. 04/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

39479304 38489032 37569087 38669351 

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