[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211813 
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-212015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0626
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO SRN AL AND ERN MS

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 211813Z - 212015Z

THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH
DEVELOPING/INCREASING TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL INTO SRN AL...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INTO ERN MS. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPEARS TO FEATURE WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE AND/OR
MCV MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WITH CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP/EXPAND SWD ACROSS CNTRL INTO SRN AL.
AMBIENT/DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE --
1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE -- OWING TO AMPLE INSOLATION AND UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S SFC TEMPS. IN SPITE OF THE INSTABILITY...WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS WILL TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SEWD. ALTHOUGH EPISODIC PULSE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON...LIMITED ORGANIZATION/MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

..GUYER.. 04/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...

33508562 32168487 31568543 31538709 31618949 33378945
33848852 33808629 

WWWW