[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 210834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210834 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-211030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT THU APR 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NEB INTO NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173...174...

VALID 210834Z - 211030Z

TWO MODES OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE AT THIS TIME...AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEWD ACROSS WRN NEB...AND LOW LEVEL
WARM FRONT MOVES NWD THRU SERN NEB.  CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT
MERGER OF THESE TWO MODES WILL OCCUR OVER SRN CUSTER COUNTY NEB AS
BOWING LINE SEGMENT MOVES NEWD ACROSS ERN LINCOLN COUNTY...AND LEFT
MOVER HEADS INTO CUSTER COUNTY.

ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN NEB IS ALONG WARM FRONT IN THE LOW LEVELS BEING
PUSHED NWD/NEWD BY MID LEVEL WARMING/CAPPING INVERSION.  THUS...IT
LOOKS LIKE AS BOWING LINE SEGMENT MERGES OVER CHERRY WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL CONVECTION IT WILL TURN EWD/ESEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ENHANCING HEAVY RAIN THREAT.  RUC PFC SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL PRESENT WITH VALUES
7.5 TO 8C/KM INDICATING THE CONTINUED HAIL THREAT.

..MCCARTHY.. 04/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

41739984 41879839 41729642 41259472 40379363 39669408
39659492 40099714 40029926 40150016 

WWWW