[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 210549
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210548 
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-210645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0622
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT THU APR 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND CENTRAL NEB...EXTREME NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170...172...

VALID 210548Z - 210645Z

WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY REPLACING WW 170 AND WW 172

SEVERAL STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALIGNED FROM SWRN
GARDEN CNTY NEB SWD THRU CHASE COUNTY TO THE YUMA COUNTY CO/CHEYENNE
COUNTY KS LINE. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STRONG FOCUS FOR
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG MID LEVEL DRYING ENHANCING UVVS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-45 KT EXTENDS FROM WRN OK NWD
INTO SWRN NEB UNDERNEATH EXIT REGION OF 60-70 KT MID LEVEL JET WITH
STRONG MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION.  THIS IS DESTABILIZING THE AIR
MASS RAPIDLY AND NEW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW IS OVER EAST CENTRAL CO WITH A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NWD AS THE TROUGH MOVES NEWD INTO THE
AREA.  ALREADY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE THAT SUPERCELL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

..MCCARTHY.. 04/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...BOU...

39039991 38930108 39110188 40200217 41290211 42600226
42990153 42969911 41869875 40529881 39529895 39189927 

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