[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 210451
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210450 
KSZ000-210615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0621
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 171...

VALID 210450Z - 210615Z

TSTMS HAVE FINALLY SHOWN A MARKED INCREASE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND
NUMBER ACROSS NCNTRL/NERN KS WITHIN WS #171.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

SCNTRL KS/OK MCS/S HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH...WITH THE LLJ BEGINNING
TO INCREASE NOW ACROSS ALL OF OK AND SCNTRL KS.  NOSE OF THE LLJ WAS
BLOWING PERPENDICULAR TO A E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ALONG THE
KS/NEB BORDER. AS A RESULT...TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE IN THE
ENHANCED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT.  00Z TOP
SOUNDING EXHIBITED STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE H85-H7 LAYER...THOUGH
THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WAS WEAK.  STORMS MAY TEND TO GROW VIGOROUSLY
AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...BUT ANY SUSTAINED ORGANIZATION MAY BE
LIMITED BY WEAK KINEMATIC PROFILES.

ACTIVITY WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
SCNTRL NEB/NCNTRL KS AND TRAIN ESEWD INTO NERN KS.

..RACY.. 04/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

39829937 39879549 38979546 38919935 

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