[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202237 
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-210000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0612
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND AND NRN/CNTRL OH INTO WRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 167...168...

VALID 202237Z - 210000Z

ISOLD SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS MUCH OF WW
167/WW 168 MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF CONVECTIVE LINES MOVING ESE ACROSS
NRN IND/NRN AND CNTRL OH/WRN PA. ALTHOUGH ISOLD SEVERE HAIL/WIND
HAZARDS MAY PERSIST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...INDICATIONS ARE THAT
WWS 167/168 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT SCHEDULED 00Z EXPIRATIONS.

AIRMASS REMAINS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN IND INTO
CNTRL OH ACROSS WW 167...WITH ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE AS
HIGH AS 750-1000 J/KG AMIDST ONLY MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR. FURTHER
EAST ACROSS ERN OH/WRN PA IN WW 168...ALREADY MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OWING TO LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING...WITH TSTMS
ALREADY EXHIBITING THIS TREND. OVERALL EXPECTED DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY/INTENSITY TREND SUGGESTS WWS 167/168 WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z.

..GUYER.. 04/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

40868776 40958586 41068343 41328217 41657911 40687894
39958283 39828769 

WWWW