[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202323 
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-210100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...EXTREME SERN WY AND NEB PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202323Z - 210100Z

TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND
AND MOVE NEWD THROUGH NERN CO...EXTREME SERN WY AND THE NEB PNHDL
THIS EVENING.  HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS THE STORMS
BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME.  ATTM...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN
THE APPARENT MARGINALITY OF INSTABILITY.  BUT...IF STORMS INDEED
BECOME STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A CNTRL ROCKIES UPPER LOW
WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND TSTMS HAVE FORMED
VCNTY KDEN SINCE 2300Z.  LATEST ETA AND WRF SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL
EXPAND TOWARD THE NEB PNHDL THIS EVENING.  FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW
AND MAGNITUDE OF ASCENT WILL ENCOURAGE STORM DEVELOPMENT. 
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGEST
STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL...DESPITE WEAK MODELED AND OBSERVED
INSTABILITY.

..RACY.. 04/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

39320473 40000476 41070514 42250409 42870327 42750251
41620212 40360223 39530283 39500325 39250429 

WWWW