[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192207 
TXZ000-OKZ000-192330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W3-CENTRAL/NW TX...EXTREME SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192207Z - 192330Z

SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20/00Z WITHIN CORRIDOR
LOCATED ALONG AND ABOUT 50 NM E OF SFC DRYLINE...FROM CDS/HOLLIS
AREAS SWD TOWARD SJT.  DAMAGING HAIL AND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
SUPERCELLS.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

AIR MASS HAS LOST ALMOST ALL SBCINH ACROSS THIS REGION...BASED ON
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS CLUMPS OF TCU NOTED IN VIS
IMAGERY.  DEEPEST CONVECTIVE TOWERS ATTM -- AND MOST PROBABLE AREA
FOR FIRST CONVECTIVE INITIATION -- IS OVER PORTIONS
KNOX/HASKELL/STONEWALL COUNTIES TX.  AIR MASS IS FAVORABLY
BUOYANT...WITH MOIST SECTOR SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 50S F
CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG.  AS MIXING WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT...DEW POINTS MAY RISE INTO LOWER 60S F AS OBSERVED AOA 50
NM E OF SFC DRYLINE.  EXPECT LITTLE MOTION BOTH OF DRYLINE AND OF
TSTMS THEMSELVES...THEREFORE SEVERE THREAT IS NARROW IN ZONAL
EXTENT.  MODIFIED RUC HODOGRAPHS YIELD 0-1 KM AGL SRH 150-175
J/KG...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESSES ARE EVIDENT IN FLOW PROFILES IN
2-4 KM LAYER.

..EDWARDS.. 04/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

32380067 34120042 34950026 34909991 34439929 34059912
33579900 32709913 31979947 31639993 31480024 31490057
31700073 

WWWW